Cited:CNN
Don’t look now but the recent employment data showing a shrinking unemployment rate and more workers finding jobs might not be sustainable. The monthly non-farm payroll report released earlier this month showed the unemployment rate dropping to 8.5% while the number of new jobs created reached to 200,000. However, today’s weekly unemployment claims data ticked higher, in fact much higher than analysts predicted and the report has caused many economy watchers and market pundit to wonder which is the blip; the monthly report or today’s weekly data?
The Labor Department reported today that the number of workers filing for unemployment was 399,000, dangerously close to the 400,000 number that many experts say is too high and a level that will keep the unemployment rate from falling further. As is usually the case, economists say let’s wait for more data. Often at this time of year, temporary workers hired for the holiday season are laid-off the result being a one-time blip higher in weekly unemployment claims. Many who follow the data closely believe that this is probably the underlying reason for today’s unexpectedly high number too.
Analysts also caution about reading too much into one report and that the best way to draw conclusions about the overall job market is to look at additional data and longer moving averages, such as the four-week moving average for this particular data. Overall, they also note that weekly jobless claims have hovered around the lowest levels seen since 2008 for the past month so its too early to panic just yet.
In addition to new unemployment claims reported today, the number of workers continuing to file claims totaled 3.6 million, an increase of 19,000 from last week.
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My take:
Employment is usually a lagging indicator of economic activity and while a very important factor in the “misery index” it doesn’t necessarily tell us about the health of the economy; not yet anyway. The employment data due the first week of February will tell us a lot more about the job market.
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