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  1. Retail Sales Rise, But Modestly

    January 12, 2012 by admin

    Cited: Bloomberg

    Today’s data on retail sales in the U.S. for December indicate that consumer spending might not be as robust as some had hoped for just a few short weeks ago. Retail sales in December rose a  modest 0.1% on the heels of a 0.4% gain in November. The data was released to the financial community this morning from the Commerce Department. Analysts surveyed prior to the report were expecting retails sales to post a monthly gain of 0.3%. The weaker than forecast data was just one bit of financial information that has fueled a sell-off in stocks today.

    For many retailers the news seems to confirm their perceptions that the U.S. consumer will have less discretionary income to spend on their products with the unemployment rate still stuck at 8.5% and while many are still carrying very high debt burdens in credit card balances, their mortgage, and automobile loans. For many of these families paying down this debt will come before spending. Another indicator that the consumer is not likely to add to their growing debt burden is the increase seen in the savings rate as people try to accumulate more funds rather than spend the money in retail outlets.

    The sales data coupled with a weaker-than-expected weekly jobless claims report sent the S&P Index down 0.2%, putting an end to a three day rally in the equity markets. Also weighing on today’s market returns was weaker industrial production data from Europe with reports indicating that production fell for the third consecutive month in November. This is yet another signal that Euro-zone overall growth for Q4 is likely to be flat or negative.

    The news on the retail sales front is not all bad because one month does not a trend make and retailers will tell you that 2011 was the best year for them since 1999. Sales at the nation’s retailers rose 7.7% for the year after rising 6.5% in 2010. And, flying in the face of today’s data for sales in December were strong automobile and truck sales, with the U.S auto makers continuing to show signs that the worst is behind them.

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    My take:

    Let’s see how the data shakes out going forward. If sales are down a bit to start the year but families are saving more money, that will bode well for a strong finish of 2012, especially if some of that savings is put into the marketplace after many of the unemployed find jobs. As everyone has noted, jobs are the key to the economy ever pulling out of the ditch and onto the highway again. It seems that now we have two front wheels on the pavement.

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